Estonian security expert: Putin fears 30-day peace – it could create the possibility of a mutiny in his army

Estonian security expert Rainer Saks writes that the Russian president personally avoids direct confrontation with the US president, at the same time he fears his own army.

Russia's actions so far show that it is trying to take into account President Trump's personality and prevent him from making possible emotional decisions to supply Ukraine with even more powerful weapons and the like.

At the moment, the scarce messages could be assessed as not being a final and principled position from Russia. By starting the game of delay, it is hoped that the US will put Ukraine under strong pressure again and stop providing military aid in order to achieve a result. In addition, it is understood that Russia lacks reserves to carry out a major offensive on the front.

If a ceasefire is established on the existing front line, Russia will not be able to gain additional territories, negotiations will rather drag on, and the removal of sanctions will become increasingly difficult. Therefore, it can be assumed that Russia is trying to go all out and achieve the demands all at once.

A ceasefire without a long-term perspective is inconvenient for the Russian leadership, since the entire army that has been concentrated against Ukraine so far must remain in place and there is almost no possibility of demobilizing army units.
This carries the risk of major rebellions and mutinies in the Russian army. The mutiny of the Wagner units has made the Russian leadership very cautious.