New U.S. sanctions hit Putin hard, Estonian experts report immediate effects
Recent sanctions imposed by the United States against Russia have already made a notable impact, according to Estonian security and energy experts. Previously, the fear of rising oil prices prevented the implementation of such effective measures.
The newly enacted sanctions target sensitive areas of Russia's economy. Energy expert Raivo Vare explains that the measures strike at Putin's "personal wallet." Two companies placed on the sanctions list, Surgutneftegaz and Gazprom Neft, are closely tied to Putin’s inner circle. However, Vare emphasizes that this is not a fatal blow to Putin's regime.
“This appears to be a strategic move in the context of upcoming negotiations initiated by Donald Trump. The signal is clear: if Putin does not cooperate, the pressure will increase. This is a very appropriate approach,” Vare said.
Key Targets: Oil Tankers and Shadow Fleet
The sanctions also extend to the insurers of Russian oil tankers and the so-called shadow fleet, which has previously evaded restrictions. Vare notes that ships listed under U.S. sanctions typically lose their ability to operate, jeopardizing an estimated 800,000 barrels of Russian oil exports per day.
“If additional sanctions are imposed on Iran, removing another million barrels from the market, the situation may change. However, global oil demand is currently low, and there is a surplus of one million barrels. Even if Russian oil is excluded, prices will rise only by around 5%,” Vare explained.
Ongoing negotiations with Persian Gulf states aim to stabilize future prices, which Russia views as a serious threat. Meanwhile, Russia’s main oil buyers, China and India, have begun refusing ships loaded before the sanctions took effect.
Why the delay in U.S. Action?
Security expert Rainer Saks highlighted that the Biden administration previously refrained from such swift and impactful measures due to concerns over rising oil prices ahead of the presidential election.
“Now we see that sanctions on the shadow fleet have not significantly affected oil prices. Keeping prices low did not help the Democrats politically in the U.S. and, worse, delayed support for Ukraine and the expansion of sanctions. This was a remarkably shortsighted approach,” Saks said.
This delay, he argues, gave Russia’s war industry critical time to continue operations.
Ukraine’s strategic push
Ukraine has been amplifying its efforts to target Russia’s oil and energy sectors. Recent strikes on Russian oil industry and infrastructure facilities have visibly demonstrated these efforts over the past few days.
Experts believe that the European Union is likely to follow the U.S. example by implementing similar sanctions against Russia, further intensifying the economic pressure.